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If you think that others are playing defence, then trade!
Other players can play defense to catch possible attackers and make them pay half of their fortunes. If you think this is the case, play trade and bet substantial amount of silver coins (but beware that you can reveal your plan to your opponents!). Others will gain nothing when you will double your wager!
If you think that a rich player is attacking, then defend!
Rich players have an advantage, but they bear the risk as well. If you think that the player with highest amount of silver coins will play attack, try and play defence. If you are successful, this upstart will loose half of his silver coins and you will gain a special card as a bonus!